Country: UK

Manchester Airport Temporary Movement Limit

27/06/22

Please see the below note from Manchester Airport regarding a temporary movement limit for S22.

Following the DfT’s decision on 21st June to implement slot alleviation measures for the remainder of the Summer 2022 season, we (Manchester Airport) have been giving urgent consideration to the need for additional measures to control the reallocation of slots that are handed-back as part of this process.

The purpose of this email is to inform you that, effective from 25th June, Manchester Airport will be implementing temporary movement limits to prevent the reallocation of slots that are released back to ACL. The commencement of the temporary limits aligns with the start of the DfT’s 14-day slot hand-back window from 25th June to 8th July. The goal of this temporary limit is to support the use of the DfT slot handback process to depressure current airport operations, and to minimise any further changes to operational planning during this volatile period

For the rest of the season, or until this limit is reviewed, new slot requests will be tested against an all-day total movement limit of 475atms/day. This movement rate is equivalent to the number of daily movements currently operating a Manchester (w/c 20th June). For purposes of clarity, all slots already allocated above this limit will be honoured, and this movement limit does not apply to GA, freight or positioning movements.

To be clear, the temporary limits will still enable airlines to operate slots that have already been allocated for the summer season. However, it will not be possible for ACL to reallocate slots that are handed-back, or any new slots, above this temporary limit for as long as it remains in place.

We propose to review this temporary limit following the closure of the hand-back window on 8th July, taking account of airline’s responses to the DfT’s slot alleviation measures.

We will also continue to review the need for further measures, including a local rule to reduce overall capacity levels, over the coming weeks based on discussions with airlines and ground handlers through the Airport Partner Working Group (MAN-APWG).

I hope you will appreciate the need to introduce these measures at short notice given the announcement from the DfT earlier this week. Please contact Andy Clark (andy.clark@acl-uk.org) if you have any questions.

S22 additional alleviation UK Statutory Instrument June 2022

21/06/22

Today (21 June), the UK Government laid a Statutory Instrument (SI) granting additional alleviation from normal slots rules for the remainder of the Summer 2022 season.  This is in addition to the Covid alleviation granted on 22 March 2022 and aims to help carriers improve resilience in the system for the summer peak (in light of recent disruption at UK airports due to staff shortages).

Under the new SI, carriers have a window (from 25 June until 8 July 2022) in which they can hand back up to 30% of slots held at a particular airport for the remainder of the S22 season (i.e. the period from 9 July 2022 until 29 October).  Carriers will get alleviation for those slots handed back by the 8 July deadline if they have meet the criteria as set out in the SI. This measure only applies to slots with a date of 9 July onwards but the handback must also take place at least 14 days in advance of the date of the slots (so for example, on 25 June an airline would be able to return slots with a date of 9 July or later, whereas on 8 July it would only be able to return slots with a date of 22 July or later). ACL will issue further guidance in due course.

W22 SAL distribution

10/06/22

UPDATE 16th June:
All W22 SAL’s have now been issued, including Heathrow which was sent on 16 June 2022.

 

All W22 SAL’s with the exception of London Heathrow have been issued. Due to a legal challenge involving slots at London Heathrow, we have had to delay the issuance of all SALs at London Heathrow pending legal advice. We will provide a further update no later than Friday 17th June, if the SAL’s have not been distributed by then.

For all our other airports please contact the coordinator if you have not received the message for a particular airport.

 

Press Release: Russia Sanctions

19/05/22

UK Government has today announced that it has designated Aeroflot, Rossiya and Ural airlines under the UK’s Russia Sanctions Regime.  This means that ACL cannot allocate slots to any of those carriers for the upcoming IATA Winter 2022 season nor can we grant alleviation for cancellations made by those carriers in the current Summer 2022 season as a result of the current flight bans.  This also prevents any transfer or exchange of any slots held by these carriers.  Slots over which Aeroflot, Rossiya and Ural currently hold historic rights for the Winter 2022 season at UK coordinated airports will be returned to the slot pool for re-allocation to other carriers.   ACL will issue further guidance shortly.

W22 SHLs Distributed

25/04/22

All W22 SHLs for ACL airports have now been distributed. Please contact the coordinator if you have not received the message for a particular airport.

A Shaky Summer

20/04/22

Airport Capacity Analyst, Christakis Christodoulou, explores how the current Summer 2022 season compares with Summer 2019’s pre-pandemic schedule and what this says about schedule volatility and aviation’s hopes of recovery.

In January this year the UK government announced an amendment to the UK slot rules. The change marked a divergence from the widespread alleviation which had become common place during the pandemic and is a step closer to the familiar 80/20 rule which was in place before March 2020. The rule requires all airlines operating at UK Level 3 coordinated airports to operate 70% of their slot series in Summer 2022 (S22) to claim their historic slots for the following 2023 Summer season.

Despite optimism in the demand for travel, the impact of staff shortages, covid case numbers and ongoing travel restrictions, means there is still uncertainty in the aviation market. This is evident in airlines latest slot holdings and the comparisons with Summer 2019 (S19).

When compared with S19, the start of the S22 season has seen a reduction of 4.58% in scheduled movements across all UK, Level 3 airports. The lowering in demand is driven by a 13% reduction in April as airlines shortened their historic season or returned slots in response to the 70/30 utilisation requirement. As the season progresses the average reduction between start of season 2019 and 2022 is 6.35%. It remains to be seen if carriers will make further reductions as the date of operation approaches.

Figure 1 – Line chart shows the number of scheduled movements by IATA week number and season snapshot across all UK level 3 airports.

At an airport level, the start of the season comparison shows three out of eight UK Level 3 airports are reporting marginal growth. As a London system, overall movements have declined in S22 compared to S19 with a reduction of over sixteen thousand movements (2.18%) compared to pre-pandemic levels

Figure 2 – Bar chart shows the number of scheduled movements by airport at the start of the Summer 2019 and 2022 seasons.
Figure 3 – Tables shows the difference in scheduled movements by airport between the start of the summer 2019 and summer 2022 seasons.

This growth is already a reduction on information captured at initial coordination in November 21, where seven out of eight Level 3 airports showed growth compared to the demand observed at initial coordination for S19.

Figure 4 – Bar chart shows the percentage difference in demand at initial coordination by airport at the start of the Summer 2022 season against the Summer 2019 season.

Similarly, five of the top ten most served routes by movements across all Level 3 airports showed growth in November 21 when compared to pre-pandemic levels. Four months later, at the start of the season, eight of the ten routes have seen a decline.

Figures 5 and 6 – Tables showing the top 10 most scheduled routes after S22 initial coordination and start of season respectively.

It is difficult to predict whether any remaining growth will continue during the season. The last two years have demonstrated short-notice changes in restrictions can disrupt planned operations. Whist such issues may be less prevalent, they have been replaced with other operational challenges. Shortages of resources and high levels of covid infections have led to disruption, cancellations, and volatility in airline schedules and airport demand.

While travel remains high on peoples wishlists; the demand for travel appears to be recovering quicker than supply can be delivered. At this stage of the coordination cycle the number of movements are 4.58% below the same snapshot in S19. Whilst we expect this to increase as the seasons progresses, the foundations are still there for growth.

If you would like to view more of our insights and compare how the start of S22 compares with the previous year, please view our start of season reports which can be found here. For more bespoke reporting, or access to ACL’s airport schedules please contact – denise.wakeford@acl-international.com

By Christakis Christodoulou, Airport Capacity Analyst

 

 

Ethiopian Airlines Sanction January 2022

06/01/22

ACL issued Ethiopian Airlines a Notice of Final Decision on 6 January 2022 for one operation without a slot during Winter 2021 at London Heathrow airport.  Please see here.

Signs of Summer

08/12/21

Airport Capacity Analyst, Christakis Christodoulou, looks at ACL’s initial coordination data for Summer 2022 and what this can tell us about the season ahead.

It goes without saying that Covid-19’s impact on the aviation sector has been significant. UK coordinated airports saw an average reduction of 70% in operated flights compared with pre-pandemic levels. Now, as Airport Coordination Limited (ACL) commence the coordination cycle for Summer 2022, we can start to get a view of airline demand in relation to initial submissions before coordination. Some might expect demand to be lower than pre-covid, as aircraft are removed from fleets, crew compliments reduced and consumer travel remaining uncertain. The story is not the case at all airports. Increased demand at this stage can be for many reasons including genuine incremental growth, positioning to exploit opportunities or uncertainty about recovery and future travel restrictions.

The graph below paints a picture of this divergence. Demand is reduced at Level 1 (data collection) and Level 2 (facilitated) airports, but increases significantly for larger, Level 3 (fully coordinated) airports. Demand activity decreased annually by an average of +7.9% (20,880 movements) at Level 2 airports, while simultaneously increasing by an average of +5.2% (55,099 movements) annually at Level 3 airports. This could be due to the less formal process at facilitated airports and the available capacity and/or lower competition for slots, making permissions easier to obtain as the coordination cycle progresses. Taking all ACL airports, Summer 22 demand has increased by +6.7% (94,088 slots) compared to Summer 2019.

The following graph compares this difference at a regional level, comparing Summer 22 and Summer 19 demand by UK regions.

The South East, which has the highest concentration of Level 3 airports, saw the highest growth. Whereas Northern Ireland saw the greatest reduction. Only time will tell if this is a true reflection on what will materialise. ACL would expect, as the coordination cycle progresses, demand will level up as schedules become finalised.

Initial data of the destinations intended to be served shows the UK and Europe accounting for 80% of Level 3 airport slot requests. Comparatively, Africa is the only continent to see a decrease in demand compared to Summer 19 season. While destinations in the Middle East saw the greatest growth in demand.

Further analysis identifies which routes are gaining popularity. The table below shows the top 20 destinations demanded during the Summer 22 initial coordination process across all UK Level 3 airports. Mallorca (PMI), Charles De Gaulle (CDG) and Malaga (AGP) are some of the many international routes experiencing an increase in demand. Amsterdam (AMS) is currently the most popular route across the Level 3 airports, facing an increase of 11% compared to pre-pandemic demand.

How accurate are these assessments?

Based on previous seasons, the data quality of initial demand data can vary and depend very much by airport. Demand for some airports tends to be genuine. Conversely, other airports are prone to receiving high demand which eventually falls away.

Demand can fall for various reasons. The coordinator may not be able to give the required time and so the slot becomes unfeasible for the operation. Or the airline may not get the slot at the other end of the route and so cannot complete the operation.

Market demand can also play a role in the eventual services operated. Airlines may seek to improve flexibility by requesting slots to build a pool to choose from as markets change. Similarly, requests may be made to test availability, with operational decisions made at a later stage. This is often common practice when airlines look to enter new markets and there are multiple options for airports in their chosen destinations.

All these examples are permitted under the slot process and with the uncertainty caused by Covid there are probably increased reasons for doing so.

Such high demand may also be misinterpreted. At a time when alleviation for Summer 2022 is still in discussions, many could conclude high demand negates a need for pandemic-related alleviation. Alternatively, it is equally uncertain whether demand at this stage is a product of ongoing uncertainty, justifying alleviation at a market-by-market level.

To answer the question, all data has its merits and a vast majority of demand data will be accurate. There will be a requirement to sensitise the data for planning purposes as history shows not everything planned will materialise and likewise services not currently planned will appear in the schedule. Those using data for planning purposes should be wary of drawing conclusions from a single snapshot. Nonetheless, ACL would urge carriers to return slots they do not intend to operate at the earliest opportunity so they can be reallocated as required by the WASG. Doing so gives airlines on the wait list greater opportunity to gain access or improve schedule optimisation and allows airports to better plan for the season ahead.

By Christakis Christodoulou, Airport Capacity Analyst

S22 SALs for ACL Airports

05/11/21

All S22 SALs for ACL airports have now been distributed. Please contact the coordinator if you have not received the message for a particular airport.