A Coordinator’s Guide to Outlasting a Pandemic

Head of Coordination, Richard Cann, explains the background to slot coordination changes because of Covid-19.

I should have guessed back in March that 2020 was not going to be a normal year. My planned holiday around Asia quickly became a beach holiday in Mexico and souvenirs were replaced with bottles of hand sanitiser and toilet rolls. Before flying home, it was clear the effects of Covid-19 were going to challenge aviation’s slot process and may well change it forever.

Operational focus

Slot coordination is a planning function that looks predominately into the medium term. That all changed with the emergence of Covid-19 as the industry shifted into looking at the next few days and weeks. ACL was required to become more operationally focused, to provide information on what was likely to operate in the short term. New processes were adopted to capture & manage repatriation flights and the increase in cargo flights some of which were operating using passenger flights.

Referral processes were introduced where constraint challenges existed. Airlines complained capacity was not available at a time the industry was grounding flights and had few passengers. It took time for airlines to get into a pattern of handing back slots they did not intend to use. In the meantime, ACL had to manage the waitlist as we would in any normal season, with many teams experiencing greater demands on their time.

As the industry becomes more accustomed to the situation a more consistent pattern of slot returns is being seen, albeit still relatively late for those trying to plan capacity and resources. Every new issue of the restrictions led to more changes. Unfortunately, there is unlikely to be any pattern of consistency in the ever-changing environment we are in.

Alleviation

Alleviation must be one of the most used words in aviation this year. With different Regulations governing the slot process in different jurisdictions it was always going to be a challenge to remain consistent across all ACL airports. The EU slot Regulation that governs most ACL airports does not explicitly cover pandemics and the subsequent impact on demand. With Europe having the greatest concentration of coordinated airports, it was imperative that the European Commission acted swiftly to give the certainty the airline community were seeking.

Whilst the EU deliberated, each sector of the industry lobbied ACL to seek alleviation and shared their views on what form that should take. ACL welcomed such interaction, as it allowed us to understand the impact of Covid-19 on different businesses. However, views on what form alleviation should take were wide ranging and often mutually exclusive, which made finding a successful outcome for all parties challenging.

Managing alleviation on a season by season basis means the topic is always on the agenda. As soon as alleviation is granted for one season, the focus moves swiftly onto the next. The Worldwide Airport Slot Board (WASB) aimed to find a consensus between airlines, airports and coordinators. The result of these discussions is a negotiated outcome that seeks to address the concerns of all stakeholders.

Conditions added to alleviation that have been adopted by the EU on a voluntary basis are difficult to administer in a practical way by coordinators, meaning their value is diminished. At a time of crisis, the coordinator needs clear direction with the associated power to deliver successful outcomes. Negotiated outcomes take time and by their very nature can dilute the intentions of what is presented.

Shortly after its establishment, the WASB has been tested with unprecedented circumstances. The challenges of satisfying all requirements will no doubt continue but the focus remains on the speed and quality of the outcomes. If the industry cannot provide effective guidance, there is a risk the Regulator will take a more active role.

New processes

As soon as the impact of Covid-19 was clear, ACL made sure we used the latitude provided in the regulation and WASG to ensure a balanced outcome wherever possible. Throughout, we issued guidelines to airlines to ensure they were aware how slots would be treated during the pandemic. This allowed for newly allocation slots to be allocated on a non-historic basis so new slots did not become blocked season after season as a direct result of alleviation. Such changes required system development to support the coordination team. All of which ACL and its partners achieved efficiently, ensuring we could deal with whatever was presented.

Going forward

The impact of Covid-19 will remain for several seasons. ACL continues to work on ensuring its processes are best placed to deal with the changing environment. Local Rules have been introduced where required to manage temporary reductions in airport capacity. This work has now been incorporated into industry best practice and extended to cover commercial capacity reductions at airports. The teams are now focused on the short, medium and long term to deal with the immediate issues and continue with the scheduling calendar as planned.

In the short term, ACL will continue to lobby for changes to alleviation to close the unintended consequences of blanket alleviation and work on proposals to find an alternative that is more balanced.

ACL believes that there are lessons to be learned from the impact of Covid-19. The standard industry guidelines do not provide for situations that deviates so far from the norm. When a coordinator needs to use the industry guidance in such situations it needs to be clear and not ambiguous.

It is clear, where slots have value (monetary or commercial) there will always be a desire by those that hold them not to give up that position. That is very logical if you are the airline that holds them. For those carriers wishing to access a market, however, this priority is less important, unless they too are protecting a slot holding at their base airport. The basic principles of slot coordination, to facilitate new entrants and promote competition, is difficult to achieve if slots are not returned to the pool. When demand is low, slots would remain in the pool until they are requested by an airline that wishes to operate. But slots are so valuable that no airline will take that risk and if no alleviation is granted, ghost flights become the potential consequence. However, it is important to remember the slot process and regulation does not force flights to operate empty, that is a decision for the airline concerned, in the same way as an airline deciding to operate flights to nowhere.

As we come out of the pandemic, whenever that may be, the industry should review the current contents of the WASG to ensure that it best meets the need of all stakeholders, including those that do not have a seat at the table. The risk of not doing so may result in alternative methods of slot allocation that may be less palatable.

By Richard Cann

Northern Summer 2021 (NS21) WASB Slot Waiver Announcement

The Worldwide Airport Slot Board (WASB) issued its recommendation for airport slot alleviation measures covering the Northern Summer 2021 scheduling season. The following provides some initial guidance to give clarity on its application at airports coordinated by ACL to avoid unintended consequences should airlines apply the WASB recommendation immediately.

VALIDITY

The WASB announcement is a recommendation. For a waiver to be applied, the Regulatory or competent authority needs to adopt this recommendation or issue an alternative waiver. Across all ACL airports this has not yet occurred so currently NO waiver for Northern Summer 2021 is being applied.

When the position changes, ACL will update its guidance.

CANCELLATIONS IN ADVANCE OF A WAIVER

Any cancellation made prior to a waiver being issued may impact on your ability to retain the historic slot. For example, a full season slot returned before alleviation has been granted will be returned to the slot pool and reallocated based on the waitlist at that time.

FURTHER GUIDANCE

Once ACL is aware of the detail of any formal waivers, it will review and where necessary provide further guidance. The current guidance on alleviation can be found here.

S21 SALs for ACL Airports

All s21 SALs for ACL airports have now been distributed. Please contact the coordinator if you have not received the message for a particular airport.

Winter Waiver Announcement

ACL is encouraged to see the statement issued today by Commissioner Adina Valean on the EU Commission’s intention to extend the use-it or lose-it slot waiver for the whole of the Winter 2020 season (https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/news/2020-09-14-common-rules-allocation-slots-community-airports_en).

To allow airlines and airports to advance their planning, and for airlines to make available any excess airport capacity for others to use, ACL will now grant alleviation from non-use of slots to airlines at the 11 airports it coordinates across the European Union and the United Kingdom from 25th October 2020 to 27th March 2021.  As required by the Commission in the statement by Commissioner Adina Valean, ACL will apply the industry agreed conditions (see more here) to the Winter waiver.

Our guidance gives full details which can be found here

Edmond Rose to step down as ACL CEO

ACL announces that Edmond Rose has decided to leave to pursue other opportunities.  Edmond will remain in the CEO role while ACL’s Board appoints a replacement and will continue to lead the company for the coming months.

ACL’s chair, Lesley Cowley, commented: “I’m sorry that Edmond has taken the decision to move on from ACL.  Since taking over as chair of the company earlier this year, I have enjoyed working with Edmond and supporting him and his team through the difficult and disruptive period caused by the pandemic.  Throughout this time, I am pleased that ACL has maintained its delivery of excellent coordination and high levels of customer service under Edmond’s able leadership.  He continues to have my full support while I and the Board begin the process to find and appoint his successor.”

Northern Winter 2020 – HBD Guidance for Airlines

As Covid-19 continues to impact the aviation sector, there remains a great deal of uncertainty surrounding waivers from the utilisation target. This may lead to unintended consequences if returning slots without first considering if a waiver is in place. The following provides details of the current situation at ACL airports as at 26 August 2020.

Historic Baseline Date (HBD)

The HBD remains 31 August 2020 and ACL will create the results table which determines the utilisation target for each slot during NW20 on or shortly after that date.

Waivers as at 26 August 2020

Waivers are currently in place for ACL airports in New Zealand and Dubai covering the entire NW20 season. Alleviation will be granted subject to certain conditions which are detailed here. This document will be amended as information changes.

A waiver is not currently in place for any of ACL EU & UK airports so cancellations made will be treated as per the EU Slot Regulation as would be the case in any other season. Carriers are encouraged to consider the below information when determining when to make cancellations at these airports.

Cancellation before the HBD

Carriers wishing to benefit from the 20% cancellation allowed before the HBD should continue to make these changes as normal. The cancellations will be included in the calculation of the utilisation targets. Details of how ACL determine historics can be found at the following links:

London Heathrow

Other (Northern Hemisphere) ACL Airports

Additional Information for Dubai International Airport

Cancellations more than the permitted 20% may result in the returned slots being made available to other carriers which may impact on your ability to retain the historic. For examples full season cancellations made at this time will be returned to the slot pool and reallocated.

Cancellation after the HBD

Airports with a waiver (New Zealand & Dubai)

At airports where a waiver is in place, alleviation will be granted to cancellations made after HBD subject to any conditions in place. Cancellations meeting the conditions will be counted as operated against the utilisation target.

Airports without a waiver (ACL EU & UK Airports)

Any cancellation made after the HBD but prior to a waiver being issued may not count towards the utilisation target and may impact on your ability to retain the historic slot. For example, a full season slot returned after the HBD but before any alleviation has been granted will be returned to the slot pool and reallocated.

Carriers will need to make their own assessment on the timing and likelihood of a waiver and determine their hand back strategy accordingly.

If alleviation is granted, cancellations made after the waiver announcement will be treated as operated subject to any conditions in place.

Newly Allocated Slots

ACL issues all newly allocated slots on a non-historic basis. ACL will consider newly allocated slots should they operate in line with 8.7.1(d) of the WASG. ACL has prepared Guidance on how newly allocated slots will be treated which can be found here.

Carriers not intending to operate newly allocated slots are requested to return these as soon as possible.

Revealed: How airline activity shows shoots of recovery

ACL’s airport analyst, Chris Butler, revisits the numbers, revealing what the latest flight volume numbers say and what this means for the remaining summer season.

Over the past weeks we have seen initial signs of optimism for flying in Summer 2020. Changing government policies, as well as signs of increasing consumer demand, have enabled greater flexibility and allowed the aviation industry to focus on a ‘ramp-up’ in flying for the remainder of the S20 season. The first week of July saw over 1,000 slots held per day across UK Level 3 airports, representing over 20% of the volume seen in Summer 2019 and increasing to over 30% by the end of July.

This tentative return of flying follows a trend of widespread cancellations as a result of the Covid-19 outbreak with 600,000 slots cancelled at UK Level 3 airports since March, representing 65% of the total allocated slots for S20.

The volume of cancellations, however, is decreasing. June saw 12% fewer cancellations than seen in May, as airlines begin to align their schedules to the expected summer demand. We can also analyse the number of ‘slot changes’ made by airlines (route, time and equipment changes to existing slots held in the schedule) to understand how this preparation for a ramp-up in flying has increased. June saw an increase in slot changes of over 250% compared to May, suggesting that airlines have significantly increased their activity in preparation for restarting some limited flying in S20.

June has also seen a 187% increase versus May in the number of ad-hoc slots added to the S20 schedule at UK Level 3 airports, translating to over 22,000 new slots. Schedule data can be used to identify where airlines are seeking to ramp up operations; 42% of slot changes made last week were for slots held in August, which may indicate that airlines are planning for a substantial increase in flying volume next month relative to current levels.

Analysis of ACL schedule data suggests that demand will not return uniformly; peaks in flying volumes may present further challenges to the industry as flights restart. Volumes in July are significantly higher on Day 5 (Friday), as airlines plan to meet demand for leisure flying.

Whilst the overall average number of flights per day in July equates to just 25% of last summer’s volume, the current schedule indicates that July will see an average of over 1,800 flights per day on Day 5, representing 34% of the volume seen in S19.

Summary

Our data indicates that the S20 schedule will remain extremely dynamic as airlines prepare to increase flying across the coming months. By analysing the volume of changes made to existing schedules we can forecast changes in flying at specific airports, times, and dates. ACL are committed to monitoring and reporting on these trends to support the aviation industry in successfully re-introducing flying for the remainder of the summer.

For more information on our schedule data or for any queries regarding ACL’s work, please get in touch -info@acl-uk

 

By Chris Butler

Unlocking the Power of Airport Slot Data

How ACL are utilising Power BI to revolutionise slot data for our airport customers.

By Shahbaz Bhatti – Airport Slot Coordinator 

Data Analytics has come a long way over the last decade and the aviation industry has been quick to benefit from the wealth of information available. Whilst it is good to have access to huge sets of data, however, being able to uncover insights or visualise this to a non-technical audience is often more challenging.  To achieve this Airport Coordination Limited (ACL) have invested in Microsoft Power BI (PBI) to present our valuable data. PBI is a Microsoft business intelligence tool which allows users to connect multiple sources of data into powerful and interactive visuals that can be shared and collaborated on to inform important decision making.

Uses in the Aviation Industry

PBI is widely used within the aviation industry. Some of our biggest customers, including Heathrow Airport Ltd and Manchester Airport Group, have heavily invested in PBI to provide them ‘on the go’ data to drive their business needs. Click here to view an article and video where the CIO of Heathrow Airport Ltd describes how PBI has helped their day-to-day operations. Over the last two years, more of our airport and airline customers have started to invest in PBI; allowing us to collaborate better, provide more insightful analytics and enhance our service by providing reports in ways never seen before.

How ACL Utilise PBI:

ACL’s database is a comprehensive portfolio of airport slots. This asset is the fundamental driver of databases, operations, and resources for all our airport customers. As well as populating Flight Information Display Systems (FIDs), the raw data can be analysed and manipulated in ways to provide useful insights for various themes. ACL has used this data to create reports related to coordination activities, growth forecasts and slot usage investigations and monitoring.

 

Figure 1 – Dashboard showing Seats and ATM’s comparison at different points of the coordination cycle.

 

PBI has been an essential tool during the recent pandemic. To preserve their business, one of our biggest customers faced the decision to close more than 60% of their infrastructure. ACL adapted to the new environment and provided quick, precise and simple demand forecast histograms, to assist decision making on falling demand. The interactive visuals allowed users to filter different operators and terminals to understand and predict the result of various scenarios. At a time where our customers required immediate assistance, PBI has delivered on efficiency.

 

Figure 2 – Terminal Demand Histograms comparing current and projected passenger movements given Covid-19 assumptions.

 

This has been equally helpful in forecasting uplifts in demand. ACL worked with the same customer to produce histograms providing scenarios for when demand returns and the impact of social distancing measures. These insights allow airport customers to make informed decisions for re-opening in the most economical way.

“ACL produced a very useful power BI report to help us better understand and analyse our flight schedules. The ability to filter by different elements of our schedule – such as terminal, airline, date, arrival or departure – gave us access to the next level of detail beyond a standard coordination report and help understand what was behind our demand. This saved lots of discussion … and made much better use of everyone’s time!  It’s a tool we’d find very useful going forward.” – ACL Airport Customer

Reporting can be utilised across the aviation community for groups such as the Industry Resilience Group (IRG) and NATS. The IRG is a collaboration of leading aviation bodies looking at enhancing day to day operating resilience, reducing delays and costs. PBI is effective for them as it allows us to store, visualise and refresh data ahead of the summer season and over several iterations. By building a PBI dashboard we can enhance the raw schedule data. This provides NATS with insights into the levels of congestion and where these are likely to take place. The daily updates we provide to NATS mean they can make reliable decisions on staffing, coinciding with the fall of traffic volumes and, more recently, with the signs of ramp-up in flights. This allows them to anticipate increases in traffic and the effect this has on their own resource planning.

 

Figure 3 – Example Page from IRG Dashboard showing the decline in ATM’s as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

ACL also utilise PBI internally to improve our own KPI performance and help us reach our customer service goals. Combined data from our SQL and Excel databases are dynamically fed to our centralised intranet page, providing colleagues with accurate, up-to-date data which can be used to assess our own performance objectives and source solutions to benefit our customers.

 

Figure 4 – ACL’s Internal KPI Dashboard showing Waitlist Management target and position.

 

Figure 5 -ACL’s Internal KPI Dashboard displaying Message Handling statistics.

 

Next Steps:

ACL are committed to our values and to ‘Striving for Better’. We endeavour to explore and endorse new and innovative avenues, stay up to date with industry norms and enhance our services. PBI has allowed us to expand our data analytics knowledge which will only increase through further use and collaboration, allowing us to better support our customers and the aviation industry.

If you would like to explore how PBI and ACL analytics can support your airport please email us at pbihelp@acl-uk.org.

 

Understanding Airport Slot Cancellations in a Global Pandemic – What the Numbers Say

As reports of decreasing flights become more and more familiar, ACL’s Data Analyst, Chris Butler, looks at how cancellation activity can help us understand how allocated slots have declined, as well as what to expect as the summer season progresses.

Following the granting of widespread alleviation from the use-it-or-lose-it rule for Summer 2020 there have been extensive cancellations of airport slots as a result of widespread travel restrictions, meaning that slot volumes have been substantially reduced. Airport Coordination Limited (ACL) has seen weekly slot volumes fall as low as 9% of the volume seen last summer, with weekly allocated seats falling further to less than 4% of last year’s volume in April.

Significant reduction in slot volume was first seen at the end of Winter 2019, where total allocated slots declined by 5.2% from the beginning of March to the end of the winter season, a fall of over 70,000 slots. Slot decline accelerated through March, with weekly volumes falling to just 60% of the volume seen in the previous winter season.

This decline only worsened as the Summer 2020 season began. At the beginning of June, total allocated summer season slots at UK airports were 48% lower than at the same point last year. This represents a sharp decline, with a deficit of over 730,000 slots year on year.

To date, decline in slot volume has substantially affected the early months of the Summer season, as airlines focus on their schedules held at the beginning of the season. By observing the total slot volume at monthly snapshots we can see how slot decline at the beginning of April was focussed on the first month of the season, with decline further into the summer months emerging at subsequent monthly snapshots.

Slots scheduled in June fell by 73% from the beginning of May to the beginning of June (a decline of over 185,000 slots), indicating the rate at which slots are being cancelled. These monthly snapshots show significant slot decline continuing as the season progresses, resulting from airlines cancelling slots on a piecewise basis due to resource restrictions and continued uncertainty regarding the possibility of increased flying.

As of 1 June, using S19 weekly slot volumes as a comparison, substantial decline is seen as far as the end of June (W13), where allocated slots are currently around 30% of the volume seen last year with some airlines yet to cancel slots held in July.

This currently represents a slight increase versus May, where slot volume was around 10% of last year’s volume. Caution should be taken however when looking further into the season (where slot volumes remain as high as 95%) as analysis of cancellation patterns indicates that slot decline is expected to roll into the coming months, as airlines amend their schedules further into the summer.

This chart breaks down the total cancelled slots by the month that those cancellations were made. The data indicates the pattern seen in cancellation activity, suggesting that the remaining summer volume will also reduce as cancellations reach further into the summer months. The scale of this reduction, however, is difficult to predict whilst the ongoing challenges posed by travel restrictions and quarantine periods remain unclear.

Whilst positivity is emerging from airlines regarding the re-introduction of air travel this summer, any uplift in flying will be difficult to forecast due to the rolling nature of cancellation activity. Despite this, ACL’s industry relations and the analysis of our schedule data will allow us to identify the early indications of any increases in flying, which may enable other members of the aviation industry to prepare for the challenges that an uplift in flying will bring.

By Chris Butler- Airport Capacity Analyst

W20 SALs for ACL airports

All W20 SALs for ACL airports have now been distributed. Please contact the coordinator if you have not received the message for a particular airport.