Winter worries and the question of Summer survival

Analyst Chris Butler looks at the continued decline in the winter schedule and the challenges and uncertainty facing Summer 2021

The latest wave of coronavirus restrictions has hit hard this Winter, dealing another blow to the aviation industry. UK schedules have become more volatile than ever, with airlines forced to change and cancel planned operations causing flight volumes for Winter 2020 (W20) to fall sharply.

Collapse in W20 traffic

National lockdowns and travel restrictions have affected UK aviation throughout the pandemic, with the first wave contributing to a 77% decline in traffic overall for Summer 2020 (S20) versus S19 (-1.2 million movements). W20 saw similar decline until the beginning of December brought initial signs of recovery, with 32% of W19 volume operating in the week beginning 16th December. Any growth was halted however by increases in UK infection rates and the subsequent tightening of lockdown and travel restrictions. W20 volume has declined to -74% versus W19 as a result, with further cancellations expected.

Scheduled volume for the festive period fell by 21% immediately after the announcement of additional UK restrictions on 21st Dec, with over 27,000 slots cancelled. The introduction of a third national lockdown prompted further cancellations; the first two weeks of 2021 saw 80,000 slots cancelled and a subsequent 27% decline in schedule volume for January – March, with airlines forced to abandon any plans of growth for the new year.

Figure 1 – Increase in cancellations per week following tightened restrictions resulting in reduced volume for January.

Schedule volume is unlikely to see substantial growth before the end of W20. ACL’s latest forecast indicates that the overall W20 volume could fall beyond -80% versus W19 based on the current rate of cancellations, with further reductions expected for February and March.

The collapse in W20 traffic versus last year has been seen across Level 3 airports including LGW (-87%) and LCY (-92%), as well as at regional airports such as CWL (-90%), SOU (-85%) and EXT (-85%). Despite periods of recovery in late summer and over the festive period, scheduled movements for both domestic and international routes saw a 77% decline in 2020 versus 2019, indicating the widespread nature of the decline in traffic.

Figure 2 – Decline in both Domestic and International weekly movements versus previous year.

Outlook for Summer 2021 remains uncertain and volatile

Looking ahead to S21, the ongoing impact of travel restrictions across the world means airlines and airports face extreme uncertainty. The aviation industry in the UK and beyond faces several crucial questions when planning for S21.

Varying country-specific travel restrictions, vaccination programmes and testing procedures will mean that the pace at which different markets recover is likely to differ greatly. Reports indicate that over 7.1 million people have already received their first dose of the vaccination in the UK; the travel industry will hope that this could stimulate demand for certain markets this summer, however the extent of the impact of the UK’s vaccination programme on travel demand for S21 remains unknown.

ACL’s dynamic schedule data source covering 26 UK & ROI airports will capture the developments seen over the coming months. This provides a valuable source of information for those looking ahead and attempting to plan for an uncertain summer.

By Chris Butler

This article has been amended since original publication.

If you would like to know more about how your business could benefit from dynamic schedule data or ACL analysis, please contact denise.wakeford@acl-international.com

Summer Waiver Announcement

The UK’s Secretary of State for Transport has announced that the UK will extend the waiver from the 80:20 slot usage rule to the Summer 2021 season, subject to certain conditions. ACL has updated its guidance to carriers which you can read here

ACL announce new CEO

Airport Coordination Limited would like to inform you that, following a thorough search and rigorous selection process, the Board of Airport Coordination Limited is pleased to announce the appointment of Neil Garwood as our new Chief Executive Officer (CEO). Neil was formerly Managing Director of Southampton Airport, where he had been for ten years, having risen through the ranks after initially joining them as Terminal Operations Manager in 2010.

Neil will succeed Airport Coordination Limited’s departing CEO, Edmond Rose, who is moving on from his role at the end of February. The ACL Board thank Edmond for his outstanding contributions and leadership throughout his time with us and especially through the challenges of this last year.

The Chair of ACL, Lesley Cowley said “I am delighted to welcome Neil to ACL. Whilst our current CEO will be much missed, we are confident that Neil’s experience, drive and values make him an ideal successor to lead ACL as we emerge from the pandemic”.

The new CEO, Neil Garwood said “I am excited to be joining the world’s leading independent airport coordination organisation at a time of seismic change in the industry and very much look forward to continuing to deliver on ACL’s ambition of world class coordination excellence for our customers and stakeholders”.

Neil Garwood, new CEO of Airport Coordination Limited

Northern Summer 2021 (NS21) WASB Slot Waiver Announcement

The Worldwide Airport Slot Board (WASB) issued its recommendation for airport slot alleviation measures covering the Northern Summer 2021 scheduling season. The following provides some initial guidance to give clarity on its application at airports coordinated by ACL to avoid unintended consequences should airlines apply the WASB recommendation immediately.

VALIDITY

The WASB announcement is a recommendation. For a waiver to be applied, the Regulatory or competent authority needs to adopt this recommendation or issue an alternative waiver. Across all ACL airports this has not yet occurred so currently NO waiver for Northern Summer 2021 is being applied.

When the position changes, ACL will update its guidance.

CANCELLATIONS IN ADVANCE OF A WAIVER

Any cancellation made prior to a waiver being issued may impact on your ability to retain the historic slot. For example, a full season slot returned before alleviation has been granted will be returned to the slot pool and reallocated based on the waitlist at that time.

FURTHER GUIDANCE

Once ACL is aware of the detail of any formal waivers, it will review and where necessary provide further guidance. The current guidance on alleviation can be found here.

S21 SALs for ACL Airports

All s21 SALs for ACL airports have now been distributed. Please contact the coordinator if you have not received the message for a particular airport.

Winter Waiver Announcement

ACL is encouraged to see the statement issued today by Commissioner Adina Valean on the EU Commission’s intention to extend the use-it or lose-it slot waiver for the whole of the Winter 2020 season (https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/news/2020-09-14-common-rules-allocation-slots-community-airports_en).

To allow airlines and airports to advance their planning, and for airlines to make available any excess airport capacity for others to use, ACL will now grant alleviation from non-use of slots to airlines at the 11 airports it coordinates across the European Union and the United Kingdom from 25th October 2020 to 27th March 2021.  As required by the Commission in the statement by Commissioner Adina Valean, ACL will apply the industry agreed conditions (see more here) to the Winter waiver.

Our guidance gives full details which can be found here

Northern Winter 2020 – HBD Guidance for Airlines

As Covid-19 continues to impact the aviation sector, there remains a great deal of uncertainty surrounding waivers from the utilisation target. This may lead to unintended consequences if returning slots without first considering if a waiver is in place. The following provides details of the current situation at ACL airports as at 26 August 2020.

Historic Baseline Date (HBD)

The HBD remains 31 August 2020 and ACL will create the results table which determines the utilisation target for each slot during NW20 on or shortly after that date.

Waivers as at 26 August 2020

Waivers are currently in place for ACL airports in New Zealand and Dubai covering the entire NW20 season. Alleviation will be granted subject to certain conditions which are detailed here. This document will be amended as information changes.

A waiver is not currently in place for any of ACL EU & UK airports so cancellations made will be treated as per the EU Slot Regulation as would be the case in any other season. Carriers are encouraged to consider the below information when determining when to make cancellations at these airports.

Cancellation before the HBD

Carriers wishing to benefit from the 20% cancellation allowed before the HBD should continue to make these changes as normal. The cancellations will be included in the calculation of the utilisation targets. Details of how ACL determine historics can be found at the following links:

London Heathrow

Other (Northern Hemisphere) ACL Airports

Additional Information for Dubai International Airport

Cancellations more than the permitted 20% may result in the returned slots being made available to other carriers which may impact on your ability to retain the historic. For examples full season cancellations made at this time will be returned to the slot pool and reallocated.

Cancellation after the HBD

Airports with a waiver (New Zealand & Dubai)

At airports where a waiver is in place, alleviation will be granted to cancellations made after HBD subject to any conditions in place. Cancellations meeting the conditions will be counted as operated against the utilisation target.

Airports without a waiver (ACL EU & UK Airports)

Any cancellation made after the HBD but prior to a waiver being issued may not count towards the utilisation target and may impact on your ability to retain the historic slot. For example, a full season slot returned after the HBD but before any alleviation has been granted will be returned to the slot pool and reallocated.

Carriers will need to make their own assessment on the timing and likelihood of a waiver and determine their hand back strategy accordingly.

If alleviation is granted, cancellations made after the waiver announcement will be treated as operated subject to any conditions in place.

Newly Allocated Slots

ACL issues all newly allocated slots on a non-historic basis. ACL will consider newly allocated slots should they operate in line with 8.7.1(d) of the WASG. ACL has prepared Guidance on how newly allocated slots will be treated which can be found here.

Carriers not intending to operate newly allocated slots are requested to return these as soon as possible.

How to coordinate an airport from your daughter’s bedroom

Our experienced coordination manager, Pete Robinson, recalls his working from home journey and how he has coordinated some of the worlds busiest airports from his daughters bedroom.

Shortly before the UK went into official lockdown, I spent a day in mid-March touring London’s airports. Aviation was just beginning to slow down, and I was conscious of the noticeable reduction in movements and the presence of stationary aircraft at Stansted, Luton, Heathrow and Gatwick.

On the second day of the lockdown I celebrated 15 years at Airport Coordination Limited (ACL). During those years I have experienced closures and disruption of all kinds from severe weather, natural disasters, terrorism, conflicts and the grounding of aircraft fleets. Even the week-long closure of European airspace due to an Icelandic volcano in 2010 pales into insignificance next to the impact of Covid-19 on the worldwide aviation industry.

The first week of working from home was strange. I usually spend two and a half hours a day on my M25 commute and contrary to most, I was strangely experiencing withdrawal symptoms. I had to accept, with the schools closed, and my partner also working from home, finding a quiet place to work was going to be difficult. Luckily, only a few months earlier, we had bought each of our girls’ desks for their bedrooms and so, kicking my 5-year-old out, I began coordinating slots from my daughter’s bedroom, with her surrounding toys for company.

Some of the “winged” toys keeping me company in lieu of real aircraft!

So how do you coordinate some of the worlds most complex airports when your whole team is working from home? Less than 12 months earlier, ACL had invested in Microsoft Teams and trained all our staff in its use. Whilst its need had been limited before, this investment truly paid off. Video calls, screen and document sharing are the new norm across ACL. Guests from outside our organisation can easily join video calls and it has allowed us to provide the same level of communication with our customers in other remote locations. Each week ACL’s CEO, Edmond Rose, hosts a Q&A session and updates us on company affairs, and colleagues take it in turns to host regular afterwork quizzes, helping to maintain social contact with the wider ACL team.

During lockdown, I begin each morning running reports for the four international airports I manage. This helps me understand the schedule movements from the last 24 hours. I monitor travel restrictions, UK Foreign and Commonwealth travel advice and the international press for any significant developments. I then correlate these against the schedule changes we have received from airlines. This information is then fed to the rest of my team via my daily Teams update. Communication with colleagues has certainly changed, but video calls have allowed us to continue enjoying face-to-face interaction. I have a daily call with my Head of Coordination and then a further call between myself and my own team. These calls are crucial for relaying updates and activity across ACL and are an opportunity to agree any actions for the coming days.

My usual morning tea break with colleagues has now been replaced with a short stroll around my garden and tending to my plants. Some great weather and the additional time at home has left my garden looking in fine shape. What started as a home-schooling project, growing some vegetable seeds with my daughters, has developed into a gardening obsession, and I have proudly been sharing updates with my colleagues on my horticulture successes.

The evolution of my horticultural obsession. 

A further highlight has been the successful roll-out of virtual coordinator training. My initial nerves over conducting training online have not been met and Teams has allowed me to share my screen with multiple users demonstrating tasks, encouraging discussions, and continuing the high level of training we provide to our coordinators.

After two months of daily cancellation activity across ACL’s airport portfolio, we are beginning to see signs of easing across Europe and there are indications that planes may return to the skies. One thing is for sure, the Summer 20 season will look very different from how it was first coordinated. The industry continues to consider how social distancing can be enacted and without concreate plans or guidance, it remains difficult to predict how demand and capacity will look in the coming twelve months.

So, as many of us adapt to the new normal, I have found myself a more suitable home and am coordinating from our spare bedroom, which I have temporarily converted to a home office. Working from home is staying a little while longer, but ACL will continue to provide our expert coordination services from whatever locations our staff find themselves, and we will continue to be both proactive and reactive to the challenges ahead.

Coordinating slots from my new temporary home office

 

By Pete Robinson